Bolstering momentum behind GOP candidates, the Tea Party still may not guarantee a November victory.
By Micah Hanks
As the August heat brings us to the crest of the summer months, a number of notable primary victories are setting the stage for a November election for which the outcome is still anyone’s guess. However, a few indicators may show that the GOP could gain a significant edge, partially from the help of grass-root efforts.
For the GOP, ten Senate seats would be required for Republicans to win the upper house in November, and primary turnouts in several states are looking promising, with GOP-backed candidates leading significantly in polls in Arkansas, Delaware, Indiana and North Dakota. However, there are still a variety of factors that could influence the GOP’s likelihood of a takeover.
Joining Tea Party-backed candidates such as Sharron Angle, Mike Lee and Rand Paul, Colorado’s Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck lead former lieutenant governor Jane Norton by close to 11,000 votes in Tuesday night’s primary. Along with Marco Rubio in Florida, who according to a Rasmussen robo-poll may be gaining an edge over former governor Charlie Crist, these candidates mark a surge in energy among Republican candidates that have been pushed along by the support of Tea Party efforts.
On the other hand, an article this morning at NBC’s First Read blog noted some of the difficulties Tea Party support could present for Republicans, since many establishment-backed candidates are being beaten by GOP voters who favor the Tea Party choices instead–whether or not they may be the strongest candidates. “If Republicans lose two out of four in Colorado, Florida, Kentucky, and Nevada, it’s hard to find a path to the 10 seats they need for control of the Senate,” the article read, noting elsewhere that “the Tea Party is giving the GOP a jolt of energy and enthusiasm heading into the fall,” and that more people voted Republican in Colorado’s primary last night than Democrat.
Elsewhere however, activities operated by so-called Tea Party groups may be getting their candidates on the ballot, though some scrutinize the measures used to do so, as well as the candidates themselves. The editorial board of the Grand Rapids Press notes that a Michigan-based Tea Party–which actually claims to be acting as a political party, rather than the broader Tea Party movement elsewhere in the country–has nominated candidates for offices of secretary of state and attorney general, as well as “two congressional seats, six state Senate seats and eight state House seats.” The Michigan Tea Party has been overseen by Mark Steffek, a man whom area Tea Partiers say they’ve never seen at meetings or other events they’ve conducted. According to the Grand Rapids Press article, “The proposed Tea Party candidates are running in highly competitive districts. That sets them up to be spoilers, drawing conservative votes away from Republican contenders.” The article goes on to point out that some of the candidates nominated by Steffek’s group are “heavy contributors to Democratic causes, only four of whom have ever voted in a Republican primary. But perhaps one of the most questionable elements here has to do with the fact that two of the candidates Steffek’s group has proposed aren’t even old enough to run for the seats they hope to represent.
While the momentum the Tea Party has built has largely favored the GOP in an effort to elect more fiscally-conservative Senators and other politicians, there could still be fallout among the party if the strongest candidates aren’t pitted against Democratic challengers. The result, even in the event that those backed by the Tea Party can garner a decent lead, could still prove difficult in states like Florida, where both Republican and Democratic voters may still opt for an independent candidate like Charlie Crist. However strong the GOP’s lead may appear to be, there is still much that could change in the months between now and election day 2010.
